The patchy Nordic mobilization
Denmark scrambles to close security gaps without torching its safety net
Russia storms the Faroe Islands in NATO’s critical North Atlantic surveillance gap! Will Washington answer the phone? Relax, it’s only Invasionen, the new thriller by Altinget security editor Andreas Krog. Yet the plot rings uncomfortably close to Nordic headlines.
Despite EU and Norwegian sanctions against Russian fishing vessels suspected of espionage and sabotage, those ships still dock in Faroese ports under a fisheries deal with Russia. Danish MPs press Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen to intervene, but he replies that fishing falls under Faroese autonomy. The Faroese cabinet now promises a review, while Danish opposition leaders insist national security outweighs home-rule niceties.
The Baltic Coast Guard
European allies are hedging against wavering American support. France and Germany just signed fresh security pacts with the UK, and the EU made one with Canada. Closer to Copenhagen, the Nordic Council urges deeper cooperation on emergency preparedness: guarding energy systems and critical infrastructure, and countering hybrid threats from cyberattacks to deepfake disinfo. The initiative will also reinforce democratic values and “develop mutual trust—a precondition for both a secure society and effective crisis management.”
The collaboration is being stress-tested at sea. Fourteen northern European states pledged joint action against Russia’s oil-smuggling “shadow fleet,” which is suspected of damaging undersea cables. “If vessels fail to fly a valid flag in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, we will take appropriate action within international law,” the group announced. Denmark will also station a new infantry battalion and boost naval capacity at the strategically located island of Bornholm.
Upping the explosives ante
Finland, NATO’s newest member, surprised arms-control advocates by voting to quit the 1997 Ottawa land-mine ban in order to protect its 1,300-kilometer border with Russia. Latvia and Lithuania have taken the same path. The Red Cross warns that it undermines global humanitarian efforts and poses risks to civilians.
“We will never sacrifice welfare and green goals on the altar of defense.”—Pelle Dragsted, Red-Green Alliance
Some policymakers are even using the N-word. Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson has said that in case of war, NATO could position nuclear weapons in Sweden. Former Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod argues that the Nordics should build a self-sufficient defense union with nuclear weapons developed with resources and expertise from Finland to Greenland:
It is an inconvenient truth that with Trump as president the transatlantic security guarantee has in reality disappeared.
Crossing the budget minefield to “the other side”
Denmark is cheerleading for Europe’s defense spending goal of 5 percent of GDP. But even with its budget surplus, the annual costs of up to DKK 30 billion will prompt tough parliamentary debates. A Defense Ministry audit puts the repair bill for run-down buildings and outdated IT alone at up to DKK 50 billion by 2033. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen warns that without IT investment, Danish troops may not be able to communicate with allies—an awkward flaw in a networked war.
Only 34 percent of Danes back higher taxes for defense, 52 percent oppose, and Parliament is split. The Socialist People’s Party wants surtaxes on the wealthy to shield daycare and elder care. Liberal Alliance says cut welfare instead. Pelle Dragsted of the Red-Green Alliance supports rearmament but vows, “We will never sacrifice welfare and green goals on the altar of defense.” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen maintains that Denmark will have a “strong social welfare system on the other side” of the rearmament, but has yet to reveal the financing formula.
Patriotism barometer and flex-BMI
If half the country doesn’t want to pay more taxes to defend Denmark, how many are “personally willing” to fight for their homeland? The answer, according to Democracy Perception Index 2025, is comparable—48 percent. Commentators celebrate that the level is higher than in many allied countries, but blogger Jesper Rasmussen says the figure is misleading. It doesn’t capture the level among military-age Gen Zers, which is probably much lower, closer to the 10 percent range found in the UK—less because of pacifism than apathy and disengagement.
But the military forces must grow. Annual conscripts will rise from 4,700 to 7,500, service length will go from four to 11 months, and—for the first time—women will be drafted. The larger pool may help offset the decline in potential conscript quality. Up to half of those tested are deemed unfit, thanks largely to surging youth obesity and mental health diagnoses. Officials plan to raise the BMI ceiling from 30 to 35 and to focus on volunteers. Lund Poulsen is drafting a scheme to mobilize thousands of former conscripts if a crisis strikes.
Alt-prepping
The country has a shortage of bomb shelters, enough for only 60 percent of the population. Municipalities can demand that they be installed in new construction projects, but none of those surveyed had done so. According to Johannes Lundsfryd Jensen, Head of Climate and Environment for the municipalities, they’ve been “very busy responding to cyberattacks.”
A full review of bunker capacity and conditions is underway, but the cyberattacks aren’t likely to stop, since Russia has just been provoked by Denmark’s decision to host Ukrainian weapons factories.
After the recent power blackout in Spain and Portugal, National Security Minister Torsten Schack Pedersen reminded Danes to stock up on three days of essentials—water, canned food, batteries. Government risk assessments cite extreme weather as well as sabotage.
Help is at hand. Preppers Pit, a new Vesterbro storefront, offers one-stop shopping for all your survival needs: five-liter jugs, emergency radios, and a complete “Urban Basic Kit” for families. Emil Husted of Copenhagen Business School sees the new online prepper trend as post-apocalyptic civic activism rather than doomsday paranoia: These preppers are asking,
What could a whole new world look like if we all had to start over? … a more democratic, harmonious, sustainable world, often based on anticapitalistic principles.
The uneasy bargain
Denmark’s guns-and-butter dilemma sits on one giant fulcrum: Will Washington keep underwriting NATO? If the US umbrella ever folds, every Nordic defense spreadsheet will turn red. Yet even with firm American backing, Denmark still has to solve two tough challenges:
Close the surveillance and deterrence gaps in the Baltic and North Atlantic before Russia tests them.
Find tens of billions of kroner for new military equipment, infrastructure repairs, and higher operating costs—without wrecking the welfare model that makes Danish society tick.
The real crunch is cash and capability. Denmark can’t afford to fail either test, or else it risks stumbling into an Invasionen scenario—if not an outright invasion, then a security crisis with no tidy epilogue.